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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 1-4 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 15, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.05 xG and Sporting CP 1.47 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.47 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Sporting CP attack 1.32 / defence 0.75, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 27% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 47%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 44%, Sporting CP 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. Guimaraes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights