🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sporting CP (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guimaraes face Sporting CP.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Guimaraes versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 December 2025 at 20:45 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Guimaraes have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes's home record at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Sporting CP (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sporting CP's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

On a straight form reading, Sporting CP are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Sporting CP, who have claimed 6 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Sporting CP winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sporting CP have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Sporting CP — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 38% versus Sporting CP 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 44% | Sporting CP 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.05 xG and Sporting CP 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.051 / defence 0.895 | Sporting CP attack 1.322 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.246. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Guimaraes games / 48 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 27% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 47%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sporting CP 2.13. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Guimaraes 50% | Sporting CP 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights