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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Tue 23 Dec 2025

20:45

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

27%

Guimaraes

3.70

26%

Draw

3.83

47%

Sporting CP

2.13

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.8%

Away win

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.05

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.53

1.47

Sporting CP xG

27%
26%
47%
GuimaraesDrawSporting CP

3.70

27%

Home win

3.83

26%

Draw

2.13

47%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.99

50%

BTTS No

2.01

Clean Sheet

23%

Guimaraes

4.37

35%

Sporting CP

2.86

Win to Nil

6%

Guimaraes

16.17

16%

Sporting CP

6.11

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.0 11.8 8.7 4.3 1.6 0.5
1 8.4 12.4 9.1 4.5 1.7 0.5
2 4.4 6.5 4.8 2.4 0.9 0.3
3 1.6 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.052
λ Away (xG) 1.474
Total xG 2.526
League avg home goals 1.340
League avg away goals 1.246
Guimaraes attack strength 1.051
Guimaraes defence strength 0.895
Sporting CP attack strength 1.322
Sporting CP defence strength 0.747
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 48 / 48