🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Guimaraes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Santa Clara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Santa Clara 2-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 28, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.33 xG and Santa Clara 0.78 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.15 / defence 0.88 against Santa Clara attack 0.75 / defence 0.85, drawn from 61/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 50% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 22%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 44%, Santa Clara 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Santa Clara's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.56 PPG, Santa Clara 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights