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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Sat 5 Apr 2025

20:30

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

50%

Guimaraes

2.01

28%

Draw

3.52

22%

Santa Clara

4.57

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.6%

Draw

0 – 0

12.2%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.10

0.78

Santa Clara xG

50%
28%
22%
GuimaraesDrawSanta Clara

2.01

50%

Home win

3.52

28%

Draw

4.57

22%

Away win

Goals Markets

62%

Over 1.5

1.61

38%

Under 1.5

2.63

35%

Over 2.5

2.86

65%

Under 2.5

1.54

16%

Over 3.5

6.25

84%

Under 3.5

1.19

6%

Over 4.5

16.67

94%

Under 4.5

1.06

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

40%

BTTS Yes

2.52

60%

BTTS No

1.66

Clean Sheet

46%

Guimaraes

2.17

27%

Santa Clara

3.77

Win to Nil

23%

Guimaraes

4.37

6%

Santa Clara

17.22

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.2 9.5 3.7 0.9 0.2
1 16.2 12.6 4.9 1.3 0.2
2 10.8 8.3 3.2 0.8 0.2
3 4.8 3.7 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.1
5 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.326
λ Away (xG) 0.775
Total xG 2.101
League avg home goals 1.351
League avg away goals 1.182
Guimaraes attack strength 1.153
Guimaraes defence strength 0.875
Santa Clara attack strength 0.750
Santa Clara defence strength 0.852
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 27