🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guimaraes vs Santa Clara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Guimaraes welcome Santa Clara to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 20:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guimaraes stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Santa Clara have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Guimaraes) versus 1.50 (Santa Clara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Guimaraes, 2 for Santa Clara and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Santa Clara winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Guimaraes in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Santa Clara in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 44% versus Santa Clara 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guimaraes 44% | Santa Clara 30%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.33 xG and Santa Clara 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.153 / defence 0.875 | Santa Clara attack 0.750 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.182. Data: 61 Guimaraes games / 27 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 50% | Draw 28% | Santa Clara 22%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Santa Clara 4.55. Guimaraes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guimaraes as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guimaraes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 40% | Santa Clara 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights