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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Moreirense 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Moreirense 1-0 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.41 xG and Moreirense 1.22 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.95 / defence 1.01 against Moreirense attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 41% | Draw 26% | Moreirense 33%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 45%, Moreirense 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Moreirense's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.49 PPG, Moreirense 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Moreirense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights