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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Fri 30 Jan 2026

20:45

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

41%

Guimaraes

2.43

26%

Draw

3.83

33%

Moreirense

3.06

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

0 – 1

8.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.41

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.63

1.22

Moreirense xG

41%
26%
33%
GuimaraesDrawMoreirense

2.43

41%

Home win

3.83

26%

Draw

3.06

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

49%

Over 2.5

2.04

51%

Under 2.5

1.96

27%

Over 3.5

3.70

73%

Under 3.5

1.37

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.88

47%

BTTS No

2.14

Clean Sheet

29%

Guimaraes

3.39

25%

Moreirense

4.08

Win to Nil

12%

Guimaraes

8.24

8%

Moreirense

12.46

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.2 8.8 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
1 10.2 12.4 7.6 3.1 0.9 0.2
2 7.1 8.7 5.3 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 3.3 4.1 2.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.405
λ Away (xG) 1.222
Total xG 2.627
League avg home goals 1.535
League avg away goals 1.237
Guimaraes attack strength 0.954
Guimaraes defence strength 1.012
Moreirense attack strength 0.977
Moreirense defence strength 0.959
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 53 / 53