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Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat Guimaraes 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Guimaraes 1-2 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.21 xG and Famalicao 0.75 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Famalicao outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Famalicao attack 0.67 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 46% | Draw 32% | Famalicao 22%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Famalicao win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 46%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Famalicao's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.46 PPG, Famalicao 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights