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Prediction vindicated as Guimaraes edge out Estrela 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guimaraes beat Estrela 2-1 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.78 xG and Estrela 1.15 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Estrela attack 0.99 / defence 1.24, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 52% | Draw 23% | Estrela 25%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 46%, Estrela 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Estrela's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights