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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sat 14 Feb 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

52%

Guimaraes

1.92

23%

Draw

4.29

25%

Estrela

4.06

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

10.9%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

1 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.78

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.93

1.15

Estrela xG

52%
23%
25%
GuimaraesDrawEstrela

1.92

52%

Home win

4.29

23%

Draw

4.06

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

79%

Over 1.5

1.27

21%

Under 1.5

4.76

56%

Over 2.5

1.79

44%

Under 2.5

2.27

34%

Over 3.5

2.94

66%

Under 3.5

1.52

17%

Over 4.5

5.88

83%

Under 4.5

1.20

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.32

Clean Sheet

32%

Guimaraes

3.16

17%

Estrela

5.92

Win to Nil

16%

Guimaraes

6.08

4%

Estrela

24.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.3 6.2 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1
1 9.5 10.9 6.3 2.4 0.7 0.2
2 8.4 9.7 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
3 5.0 5.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 2.2 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.778
λ Away (xG) 1.152
Total xG 2.930
League avg home goals 1.549
League avg away goals 1.252
Guimaraes attack strength 0.925
Guimaraes defence strength 0.927
Estrela attack strength 0.993
Estrela defence strength 1.241
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55