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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Mon 11 May 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

69%

Guimaraes

1.45

19%

Draw

5.25

12%

Casa Pia

8.46

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

13.0%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

12.3%

Home win

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.10

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.84

0.73

Casa Pia xG

69%
19%
12%
GuimaraesDrawCasa Pia

1.45

69%

Home win

5.25

19%

Draw

8.46

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.19

54%

BTTS No

1.84

Clean Sheet

48%

Guimaraes

2.08

12%

Casa Pia

8.20

Win to Nil

33%

Guimaraes

3.01

1%

Casa Pia

69.36

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.9 4.3 1.6 0.4 0.1
1 12.3 9.0 3.3 0.8 0.1
2 13.0 9.5 3.5 0.9 0.2
3 9.1 6.7 2.4 0.6 0.1
4 4.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
5 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.104
λ Away (xG) 0.734
Total xG 2.838
League avg home goals 1.479
League avg away goals 1.137
Guimaraes attack strength 1.144
Guimaraes defence strength 0.896
Casa Pia attack strength 0.720
Casa Pia defence strength 1.243
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66