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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Casa Pia encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Guimaraes versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 20:15 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Guimaraes have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Guimaraes's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Guimaraes are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.

Casa Pia (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

The form ledger tips toward Guimaraes. A 0.70 PPG lead over Casa Pia (1.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Guimaraes 1W, Casa Pia 2W, 4D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.9 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.9 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 42% versus Casa Pia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 47% | Casa Pia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 2.10 xG and Casa Pia 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.144 / defence 0.896 | Casa Pia attack 0.720 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.137. Casa Pia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Guimaraes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Guimaraes games / 66 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 69% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 12%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Casa Pia 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Guimaraes (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 0.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 50% | Casa Pia 40% BTTS from recent games.

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