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Dominant Benfica run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Guimaraes 0-3 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.01 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.10 / defence 0.96 against Benfica attack 1.09 / defence 0.69, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 27% | Draw 31% | Benfica 42%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 44%, Benfica 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Benfica's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights