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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Benfica (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Guimaraes face Benfica.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Guimaraes welcome Benfica to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 20:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Guimaraes have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimaraes have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Guimaraes are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.

Benfica — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Benfica's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 6 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Guimaraes.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Guimaraes trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Benfica trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 42% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 44% | Benfica 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.01 xG and Benfica 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.097 / defence 0.957 | Benfica attack 1.089 / defence 0.693. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.278. Benfica's defence strength of 0.693 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Guimaraes games / 43 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 27% | Draw 31% | Benfica 42%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 3.70 | Draw 3.23 | Benfica 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Guimaraes 50% | Benfica 50%.

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