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Guimaraes and Alverca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 24, as Guimaraes and Alverca drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.83 xG and Alverca 0.91 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Guimaraes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Alverca attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 59% | Draw 23% | Alverca 18%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 48%, Alverca 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Guimaraes's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Alverca's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Guimaraes 1.35 PPG, Alverca 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights