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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 24

Kick-off

Sat 28 Feb 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

59%

Guimaraes

1.69

23%

Draw

4.42

18%

Alverca

5.44

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.8%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

10.8%

Draw

2 – 0

10.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.83

Guimaraes xG

Total xG

2.74

0.91

Alverca xG

59%
23%
18%
GuimaraesDrawAlverca

1.69

59%

Home win

4.42

23%

Draw

5.44

18%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

50%

BTTS Yes

1.99

50%

BTTS No

2.01

Clean Sheet

40%

Guimaraes

2.49

16%

Alverca

6.24

Win to Nil

24%

Guimaraes

4.22

3%

Alverca

33.97

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 5.9 2.7 0.8 0.2
1 11.8 10.8 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.1
2 10.8 9.8 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1
3 6.6 6.0 2.7 0.8 0.2
4 3.0 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1
5 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.831
λ Away (xG) 0.912
Total xG 2.743
League avg home goals 1.544
League avg away goals 1.190
Guimaraes attack strength 0.946
Guimaraes defence strength 0.954
Alverca attack strength 0.803
Alverca defence strength 1.254
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 57 / 23