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Shock result as Tondela defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.82 xG and Tondela 0.66 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.00 / defence 0.68 against Tondela attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 64% | Draw 24% | Tondela 12%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 18%, Tondela 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 23%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time, and conceded here.

Tondela's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Tondela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights