GIL Vicente 0-1 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIL Vicente vs Tondela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Tondela meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tondela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tondela's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. GIL Vicente's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Tondela's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for GIL Vicente, 0 for Tondela and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 3–0 with GIL Vicente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time.
Tondela — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 73% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (GIL Vicente 18% | Tondela 27%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 18% | Tondela 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.82 xG and Tondela 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.996 / defence 0.684 | Tondela attack 0.727 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.326. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. GIL Vicente's defence rating of 0.684 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 GIL Vicente games / 11 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 64% | Draw 24% | Tondela 12%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Tondela 8.33. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 10% | Tondela 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 64% | Draw 24% | Tondela 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 42% | xG GIL Vicente 1.82 / Tondela 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.996 / def 0.684 | Tondela attack 0.727 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Tondela xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Tondela kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Tondela kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Tondela?
GIL Vicente 0 - 1 Tondela.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Tondela part of?
GIL Vicente vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 64% chance of winning, Tondela a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both GIL Vicente and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Tondela?
Record (2 meetings): GIL Vicente 2W | Draws 0 | Tondela 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Tondela in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Tondela (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.00x the league average against Tondela's defence at 1.37x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tondela's attack (0.73x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.16
12%
8.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.48
0.66
Tondela xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
8.52
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
2%
52.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.66 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Tondela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 7W 2D 2L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tondela's form line: 1W 3D 7L from 11 games, 0.55 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Tondela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, GIL Vicente are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tondela.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L).
On the road, Tondela have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.45 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 0.55 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games; Tondela in 27%.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Tondela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Tondela in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 7W 2D 2L in their last 11 games (2.09 PPG), while Tondela have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 (0.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Tondela away?
GIL Vicente's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 2.40 PPG; Tondela away: 0.80 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Tondela been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 73% of their recent games, Tondela in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 0-3 on 28 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tondela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
1
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Tondela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Tondela 2-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Tondela?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (GIL Vicente) and 40% (Tondela) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (GIL Vicente) and 80% (Tondela).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Tondela in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 40% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 80% of Tondela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Tondela tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Tondela in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tondela defy the odds to beat GIL Vicente 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tondela beat GIL Vicente 0-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.82 xG and Tondela 0.66 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.00 / defence 0.68 against Tondela attack 0.73 / defence 1.37, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 64% | Draw 24% | Tondela 12%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 18%, Tondela 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 23%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 73% of the time, and conceded here.
Tondela's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with Tondela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.