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Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out SC Braga 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat SC Braga 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.42 xG and SC Braga 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.18 / defence 0.81 against SC Braga attack 1.33 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 25% | SC Braga 35%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 42%, SC Braga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with GIL Vicente winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights