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Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIL Vicente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat GIL Vicente 0-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.52 xG and Famalicao 1.18 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Famalicao outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Famalicao attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 44% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 29%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, Famalicao 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Famalicao's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.05 PPG, Famalicao 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights