GIL Vicente 0-2 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Famalicao meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 February 2025 at 20:15 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for GIL Vicente against 0.80 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Famalicao in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 53% versus Famalicao 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 51% | Famalicao 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.52 xG and Famalicao 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.020 / defence 0.927 | Famalicao attack 1.081 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.178. Data: 55 GIL Vicente games / 55 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 44% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 29%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Famalicao 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 70% | Famalicao 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 17 Feb 2025, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 44% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG GIL Vicente 1.52 / Famalicao 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.020 / def 0.927 | Famalicao attack 1.081 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Famalicao xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 17 February 2025 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
GIL Vicente 0 - 2 Famalicao.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao part of?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 44% chance of winning, Famalicao a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIL Vicente and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
Record (6 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 3 | Famalicao 2W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Famalicao (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.02x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.08x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.72
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.70
1.18
Famalicao xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.18 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 16D 25L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 15W 22D 18L from 55 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.22 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (10W 11D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — GIL Vicente are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Famalicao have gone 7W 10D 10L from 27 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.07 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 14W 16D 25L in their last 55 games (1.05 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 15W 22D 18L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Famalicao away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.52 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.15 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Famalicao in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
5
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Famalicao have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 59%, Famalicao 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (GIL Vicente) and 44% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Famalicao in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of GIL Vicente's games and 52% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 44% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Famalicao tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat GIL Vicente 0-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.52 xG and Famalicao 1.18 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Famalicao outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Famalicao attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 44% | Draw 27% | Famalicao 29%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 51%, Famalicao 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.05 PPG, Famalicao 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.