GIL Vicente 2-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 68% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIL Vicente face Casa Pia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga (matchday 31). The match kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 21:15 UK time.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, GIL Vicente have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Casa Pia (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Casa Pia have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, GIL Vicente edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended GIL Vicente 1–1 Casa Pia — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 48% versus Casa Pia 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 47% | Casa Pia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 2.04 xG and Casa Pia 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.099 / defence 0.940 | Casa Pia attack 0.688 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.118. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIL Vicente's projected output up. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from GIL Vicente's last 64 games and Casa Pia's last 64.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 12%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.47 | Draw 5.09 | Casa Pia 8.23. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (GIL Vicente's last 10 home games and Casa Pia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIL Vicente 60% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 31 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Monday 27 April 2026 at 21:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG GIL Vicente 2.04 / Casa Pia 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.099 / def 0.940 | Casa Pia attack 0.688 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Casa Pia xG
45%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia FAQs
What time does GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia kicked off at 21:15 UK time on Monday 27 April 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
GIL Vicente 2 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia part of?
GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 31) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 68% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both GIL Vicente and Casa Pia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.10) and Casa Pia's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.69x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from GIL Vicente's last 64 games and Casa Pia's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.09
12%
8.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.76
0.72
Casa Pia xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
8.23
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
33%
3.02
2%
63.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 9.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.72 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 20W 20D 24L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Casa Pia's form line: 17W 20D 27L from 64 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.11 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.47 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 8D 11L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 7W 8D 17L from their last 32 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.05 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
GIL Vicente (Home) vs Casa Pia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Casa Pia
Current Season
❓ GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Form FAQs
What form are GIL Vicente and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 20W 20D 24L in their last 64 games (1.25 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 17W 20D 27L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Casa Pia away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.47 PPG; Casa Pia away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, GIL Vicente have won 5, Casa Pia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Casa Pia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Casa Pia?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Casa Pia 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 53% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 31% of games; Casa Pia in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIL Vicente and Casa Pia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 44% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are GIL Vicente and Casa Pia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 53% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Casa Pia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 66% of Casa Pia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Casa Pia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Casa Pia 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 2.04 xG and Casa Pia 0.72 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Casa Pia attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 12%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 47%, Casa Pia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.25 PPG, Casa Pia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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