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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as GIL Vicente edge out Casa Pia 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Casa Pia 2-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 31, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 2.04 xG and Casa Pia 0.72 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.10 / defence 0.94 against Casa Pia attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 68% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 12%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 47%, Casa Pia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.25 PPG, Casa Pia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights