Benfica 2-1 Tondela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Tondela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Tondela at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 3W 0D 0L from 3 Primeira Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Tondela have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Tondela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 2.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Tondela trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Benfica 33% | Tondela 33%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 33% | Tondela 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.42 xG and Tondela 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.021 / defence 1.033 | Tondela attack 0.842 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.068. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Benfica games / 3 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 45% | Draw 34% | Tondela 21%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.22 | Draw 2.94 | Tondela 4.76. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 33% | Tondela 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Tondela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 45% | Draw 34% | Tondela 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Benfica 1.42 / Tondela 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.021 / def 1.033 | Tondela attack 0.842 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Benfica (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Tondela xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Tondela kick off?
Benfica vs Tondela kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Tondela?
Benfica 2 - 1 Tondela.
Where is Benfica vs Tondela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Tondela part of?
Benfica vs Tondela is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Tondela?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 45% chance of winning, Tondela a 21% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Tondela?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Benfica and Tondela will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Tondela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Tondela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benfica and Tondela in?
Benfica (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-W-W. Tondela (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.02) and Tondela's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tondela's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
45%
2.24
34%
2.90
21%
4.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.35
0.93
Tondela xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.79
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
19.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Tondela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and Tondela expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Benfica and 0.93 for Tondela, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Tondela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Benfica have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 0L record — W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Tondela's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Tondela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tondela.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Tondela are on 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Tondela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Tondela in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Tondela have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Benfica or Tondela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Tondela in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2025, when Benfica won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Tondela specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Tondela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Tondela?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 3, Tondela have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Tondela last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Tondela 0-0 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Tondela?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Tondela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Benfica 33% BTTS, Tondela 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Benfica and 100% for Tondela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Tondela in 33%; Tondela in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Tondela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Tondela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Benfica's recent matches and 33% of Tondela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Tondela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Benfica's matches and 100% of Tondela's.
Do Benfica and Tondela tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tondela in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Tondela 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Tondela 2-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.42 xG and Tondela 0.93 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.02 / defence 1.03 against Tondela attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 45% | Draw 34% | Tondela 21%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 33%, Tondela 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Tondela's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.