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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Arouca cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIL Vicente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat GIL Vicente 1-3 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 33, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.76 xG and Arouca 0.99 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Arouca outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.08 / defence 0.95 against Arouca attack 0.91 / defence 1.10, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 56% | Draw 23% | Arouca 21%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Arouca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 47%, Arouca 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

GIL Vicente's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Arouca's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.27 PPG, Arouca 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arouca win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights