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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 33

Kick-off

Mon 11 May 2026

20:15

Venue

Estádio Cidade de Barcelos

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

GIL Vicente Win

56%

GIL Vicente

1.80

23%

Draw

4.26

21%

Arouca

4.76

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

11.3%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.1%

Draw

2 – 0

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.76

GIL Vicente xG

Total xG

2.74

0.99

Arouca xG

56%
23%
21%
GIL VicenteDrawArouca

1.80

56%

Home win

4.26

23%

Draw

4.76

21%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.08

Clean Sheet

37%

GIL Vicente

2.68

17%

Arouca

5.80

Win to Nil

21%

GIL Vicente

4.83

4%

Arouca

27.58

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.4 6.3 3.1 1.0 0.3
1 11.3 11.1 5.5 1.8 0.4 0.1
2 9.9 9.8 4.8 1.6 0.4 0.1
3 5.8 5.7 2.8 0.9 0.2
4 2.6 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
5 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.758
λ Away (xG) 0.986
Total xG 2.744
League avg home goals 1.479
League avg away goals 1.137
GIL Vicente attack strength 1.083
GIL Vicente defence strength 0.948
Arouca attack strength 0.914
Arouca defence strength 1.098
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 66 / 66