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Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Farense 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.61 xG and SC Braga 1.45 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.63 / defence 1.23 against SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 15% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 57%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, SC Braga 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Braga's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights