Farense 0-1 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Braga at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Farense vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Farense and SC Braga meet at Estádio de São Lúis in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Farense have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Lúis, Farense have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SC Braga (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, SC Braga have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
SC Braga arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Farense lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with SC Braga winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Farense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
SC Braga goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Farense 52% versus SC Braga 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Farense 49% | SC Braga 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Farense 0.61 xG and SC Braga 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Farense attack 0.633 / defence 1.225 | SC Braga attack 1.054 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.122. Farense's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Braga's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Farense games / 59 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Farense 15% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 57%. Fair-value odds: Farense 6.67 | Draw 3.70 | SC Braga 1.75. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Farense's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Farense 30% | SC Braga 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Farense vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio de São Lúis • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Farense 15% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 35% | xG Farense 0.61 / SC Braga 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Farense attack 0.633 / def 1.225 | SC Braga attack 1.054 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.61
Farense xG
Expected Goals
1.45
SC Braga xG
35%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Farense vs SC Braga kick off?
Farense vs SC Braga kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Estádio de São Lúis.
What was the final score in Farense vs SC Braga?
Farense 0 - 1 SC Braga.
Where is Farense vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Lúis.
What competition is Farense vs SC Braga part of?
Farense vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Farense vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Farense a 15% chance of winning, SC Braga a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Farense vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Farense and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Farense vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and SC Braga?
Record (3 meetings): Farense 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 2W.
What form are Farense and SC Braga in?
Farense (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. SC Braga (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Farense's attack at 0.63x the league average against SC Braga's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Braga's attack (1.05x) against Farense's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-2 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
15%
6.54
27%
3.67
57%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.4%
Away win
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.61
Farense xG
Total xG
2.05
1.45
SC Braga xG
6.54
15%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.74
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
55%
1.83
Win to Nil
4%
27.81
31%
3.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 18.6 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Farense vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Farense and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 0.61 expected goals for Farense and 1.45 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Farense vs SC Braga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Farense have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 13W 15D 31L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Farense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Braga's form line: 36W 10D 13L from 59 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Farense.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Farense have posted 1.00 PPG from 29 outings (8W 5D 16L).
On the road, SC Braga have gone 19W 4D 6L from 29 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Farense are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.90 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Farense
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Farense and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Farense have gone 13W 15D 31L in their last 59 games (0.92 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 36W 10D 13L in their last 59 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Farense at home or SC Braga away?
SC Braga's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Farense at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Braga away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Farense or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Farense have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SC Braga in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SC Braga have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Farense have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Braga — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Farense
0
Draws
3
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Farense and SC Braga?
From 4 meetings on record, Farense have won 1, SC Braga have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Farense and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Farense 0-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between Farense and SC Braga?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Farense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Farense 45%, SC Braga 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Farense) and 66% (SC Braga). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga in 38%; Farense have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Farense home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Farense play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Farense's recent matches and 55% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Farense vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Farense's matches and 66% of SC Braga's.
Do Farense and SC Braga tend to score early?
Farense have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Braga edge out Farense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Farense 0-1 at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.61 xG and SC Braga 1.45 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.63 / defence 1.23 against SC Braga attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Farense 15% | Draw 27% | SC Braga 57%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, SC Braga 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Farense's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Braga's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. Farense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.