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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Farense and Guimaraes share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio de São Lúis, Regular Season - 16, as Farense and Guimaraes drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Farense 0.83 xG and Guimaraes 1.17 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Farense beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guimaraes outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Farense attack 0.69 / defence 1.09 against Guimaraes attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Farense 26% | Draw 31% | Guimaraes 44%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Farense 49%, Guimaraes 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Farense's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Guimaraes's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Farense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights