Famalicao 0-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Famalicao face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Famalicao (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
Sporting CP have collected 3.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's away record: 9W 1D 0L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sporting CP are 1.40 PPG clear of Famalicao in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (3.00 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Sporting CP have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Famalicao's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Sporting CP winning.
It is worth noting that Sporting CP have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 50% versus Sporting CP 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 40% | Sporting CP 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.81 xG and Sporting CP 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.869 / defence 0.822 | Sporting CP attack 1.849 / defence 0.692. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.081. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.692 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.849 — the away xG of 1.64 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Famalicao games / 42 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 18% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 57%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Sporting CP 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Sporting CP 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 18% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Famalicao 0.81 / Sporting CP 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.869 / def 0.822 | Sporting CP attack 1.849 / def 0.692 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Sporting CP xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Sporting CP kick off?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Famalicao 0 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Famalicao vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Sporting CP part of?
Famalicao vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 18% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 57% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Famalicao and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Record (6 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 1 | Sporting CP 5W.
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Sporting CP (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Sporting CP's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.85x) against Famalicao's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
18%
5.48
24%
4.09
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.45
1.64
Sporting CP xG
5.48
18%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.17
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
4%
28.32
26%
3.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 14.2 | 11.6 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.64 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 13W 16D 13L from 42 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP, meanwhile, have gone 37W 3D 2L across 42 games — 2.71 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 8W 8D 5L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sporting CP's away record stands at 16W 3D 2L across 21 trips, a 2.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.93 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 13W 16D 13L in their last 42 games (1.31 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 37W 3D 2L in their last 42 (2.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.52 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 9 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Famalicao
1
Draws
9
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 0, Sporting CP have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 52%, Sporting CP 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Famalicao) and 76% (Sporting CP). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sporting CP in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Famalicao's recent matches and 52% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Famalicao's matches and 76% of Sporting CP's.
Do Famalicao and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Famalicao 0-3 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.81 xG and Sporting CP 1.64 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Famalicao fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sporting CP outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against Sporting CP attack 1.85 / defence 0.69, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 18% | Draw 24% | Sporting CP 57%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 40%, Sporting CP 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.71 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.