Estoril 4-1 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Arouca — this Estoril vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Estoril's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Estoril's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Arouca (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Arouca's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Arouca have the stronger record — 4 wins to Estoril's 1, with 0 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Estoril 1–2 Arouca — a Arouca win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Arouca have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Arouca half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 52% versus Arouca 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 57% | Arouca 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.19 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.764 / defence 1.119 | Arouca attack 0.883 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.071. Estoril's attack rating of 0.764 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Estoril's last 42 games and Arouca's last 42.
Result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 29% | Arouca 32%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.56 | Draw 3.49 | Arouca 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 20% (last 10 home games) | Arouca 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 39% | Draw 29% | Arouca 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Estoril 1.19 / Arouca 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.764 / def 1.119 | Arouca attack 0.883 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Estoril (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Arouca xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Arouca FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Arouca kick off?
Estoril vs Arouca kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril 4 - 1 Arouca.
Where is Estoril vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Arouca part of?
Estoril vs Arouca is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 39% chance of winning, Arouca a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Estoril and Arouca will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Estoril vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Estoril's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.88x) against Estoril's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 42 games and Arouca's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.49
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.25
1.06
Arouca xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Arouca Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Estoril and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Estoril and 1.06 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 9D 23L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Arouca sit at 1.26 PPG from 42 outings (15W 8D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Estoril against 1.26 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 9W 2D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 1.38 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Arouca have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 21 away games (7W 4D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.38 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Arouca
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs Arouca (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Estoril vs Arouca Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Arouca in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 10W 9D 23L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while Arouca have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Arouca away?
Estoril's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.38 PPG; Arouca away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Estoril or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Arouca in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won Estoril 4-1 Arouca on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 3W 1D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Estoril
2
Draws
5
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Arouca H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Arouca?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 3, Arouca have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Arouca last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Estoril 0-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 33%, Arouca 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Estoril) and 62% (Arouca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Arouca in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Arouca Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Arouca matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Estoril's recent matches and 52% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Arouca matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Estoril's matches and 62% of Arouca's.
Do Estoril and Arouca matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Estoril's recent matches and 76% of Arouca's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Estoril run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estoril beat Arouca 4-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.19 xG and Arouca 1.06 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.76 / defence 1.12 against Arouca attack 0.88 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 39% | Draw 29% | Arouca 32%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 57%, Arouca 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Arouca's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estoril 0.93 PPG, Arouca 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Arouca (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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