Benfica 5-0 Rio Ave – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Rio Ave.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Rio Ave at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Benfica are significantly better at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rio Ave stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rio Ave, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rio Ave's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Benfica: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Rio Ave, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Benfica in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Rio Ave in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 46% versus Rio Ave 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 61% | Rio Ave 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.71 xG and Rio Ave 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.635 / defence 0.825 | Rio Ave attack 0.764 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.086. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.635 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rio Ave bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Benfica games / 42 Rio Ave games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Rio Ave 7%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | Rio Ave 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | Rio Ave 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Rio Ave | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Rio Ave 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 46% | xG Benfica 2.71 / Rio Ave 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.635 / def 0.825 | Rio Ave attack 0.764 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Benfica (80%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Rio Ave xG
46%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Rio Ave kick off?
Benfica vs Rio Ave kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Benfica 5 - 0 Rio Ave.
Where is Benfica vs Rio Ave being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Rio Ave part of?
Benfica vs Rio Ave is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 80% chance of winning, Rio Ave a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Benfica and Rio Ave will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Rio Ave have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Rio Ave?
Record (4 meetings): Benfica 3W | Draws 1 | Rio Ave 0W.
What form are Benfica and Rio Ave in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rio Ave (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benfica's attacking strength (1.64x league average) is weighed against Rio Ave's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.71. The same calculation in reverse, Rio Ave's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
80%
1.25
13%
7.61
7%
14.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.39
0.68
Rio Ave xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.61
13%
Draw
14.43
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
1.98
7%
15.01
Win to Nil
40%
2.48
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Benfica and Rio Ave expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Benfica and 0.68 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 30W 6D 5L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rio Ave's form line: 7W 21D 13L from 41 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Rio Ave is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.32 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rio Ave.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.81 PPG from 21 outings (19W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.34 PPG overall — Benfica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rio Ave have gone 0W 11D 10L from 21 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rio Ave's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Rio Ave are on 1.02 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Rio Ave
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Rio Ave in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 30W 6D 5L in their last 41 games (2.34 PPG), while Rio Ave have gone 7W 21D 13L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Rio Ave away?
Benfica's home record (2.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.81 PPG; Rio Ave away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Benfica or Rio Ave been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Rio Ave in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Rio Ave specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Benfica
2
Draws
0
Rio Ave
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Rio Ave?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Rio Ave have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Rio Ave last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Rio Ave 0-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Rio Ave?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Rio Ave are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 43%, Rio Ave 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benfica) and 38% (Rio Ave).
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Rio Ave in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Rio Ave away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Rio Ave?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Benfica's recent matches and 52% of Rio Ave's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Rio Ave usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Benfica's recent games and 38% of Rio Ave's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Rio Ave tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rio Ave in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Rio Ave.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Rio Ave 5-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 9, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.71 xG and Rio Ave 0.68 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.64 / defence 0.82 against Rio Ave attack 0.76 / defence 1.24, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 80% | Draw 13% | Rio Ave 7%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 80%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 61%, Rio Ave 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rio Ave's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.90 average — above their attacking norm. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.