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Shock result as Santa Clara defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat Famalicao 1-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.01 xG and Santa Clara 0.84 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 0.97 against Santa Clara attack 0.79 / defence 0.99, drawn from 49/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 39% | Draw 32% | Santa Clara 29%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Santa Clara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Santa Clara 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Santa Clara's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santa Clara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights