Famalicao 1-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Famalicao vs Moreirense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Moreirense travel to Estadio Municipal de Famalicao to take on Famalicao in Primeira Liga (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026 at 21:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Famalicao stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Famalicao's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Moreirense — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Moreirense have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Famalicao are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Famalicao, 1 for Moreirense and 4 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Famalicao 2–2 Moreirense — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Famalicao in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 45% versus Moreirense 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 47% | Moreirense 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.57 xG and Moreirense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.034 / defence 0.751 | Moreirense attack 0.909 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.156. Famalicao have a tight defence (rating 0.751), which is pulling Moreirense's projected output down. Data: built from Famalicao's last 62 games and Moreirense's last 62.
Result probabilities: Famalicao 56% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 19%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.79 | Draw 3.94 | Moreirense 5.31. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Famalicao 30% (last 10 home games) | Moreirense 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Friday 10 April 2026 at 21:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 56% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Famalicao 1.57 / Moreirense 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.034 / def 0.751 | Moreirense attack 0.909 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Moreirense xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Famalicao vs Moreirense FAQs
What time does Famalicao vs Moreirense kick off?
Famalicao vs Moreirense kicked off at 21:45 UK time on Friday 10 April 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Famalicao 1 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Famalicao vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Moreirense part of?
Famalicao vs Moreirense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 56% chance of winning, Moreirense a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Famalicao and Moreirense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Famalicao vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Moreirense's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Famalicao's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Famalicao's last 62 games and Moreirense's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
56%
1.79
25%
3.94
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.36
0.79
Moreirense xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
4%
25.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Famalicao vs Moreirense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.79 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Moreirense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Famalicao come into this having played 62 games, going 25W 18D 19L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 1.21 PPG from 62 outings (20W 15D 27L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Famalicao on 1.50 PPG, Moreirense on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Famalicao's home form reads 15W 9D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 0.94 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 5D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Famalicao are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
Famalicao (Home) vs Moreirense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Famalicao
Current Season
Moreirense
Current Season
❓ Famalicao vs Moreirense Form FAQs
What form are Famalicao and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 25W 18D 19L in their last 62 games (1.50 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 20W 15D 27L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Moreirense away?
Famalicao's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.74 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Moreirense in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 10 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Feb 2022, when Famalicao won Famalicao 5-0 Moreirense.
Famalicao's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Famalicao
5
Draws
1
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Famalicao vs Moreirense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Moreirense?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Famalicao have won 2, Moreirense have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Moreirense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 April 2026: Famalicao 1-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Moreirense?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 36%, Moreirense 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Famalicao) and 55% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 26% of games; Moreirense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Famalicao vs Moreirense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Famalicao and Moreirense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Famalicao's recent matches and 52% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Famalicao and Moreirense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Famalicao's recent games and 55% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Moreirense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Famalicao's recent matches and 64% of Moreirense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Famalicao and Moreirense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 29, as Famalicao and Moreirense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.57 xG and Moreirense 0.79 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.03 / defence 0.75 against Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 56% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 19%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Moreirense 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Moreirense's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.50 PPG, Moreirense 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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