Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alverca at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alverca vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Casa Pia make the trip to FC Alverca Sports Complex to face Alverca in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Casa Pia have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Alverca against 1.10 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Alverca 1W, Casa Pia 0W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Alverca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alverca — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 57% versus Casa Pia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 54% | Casa Pia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 1.18 xG and Casa Pia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.683 / defence 1.218 | Casa Pia attack 0.659 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.156. Alverca's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Alverca games / 61 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alverca 42% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 29%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Casa Pia 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alverca as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alverca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alverca 50% | Casa Pia 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 42% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Alverca 1.18 / Casa Pia 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.683 / def 1.218 | Casa Pia attack 0.659 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Alverca (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Casa Pia xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alverca vs Casa Pia kick off?
Alverca vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca 3 - 1 Casa Pia.
Where is Alverca vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs Casa Pia part of?
Alverca vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 42% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alverca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alverca and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Alverca vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Casa Pia?
Record (1 meetings): Alverca 1W | Draws 0 | Casa Pia 0W.
What form are Alverca and Casa Pia in?
Alverca (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Alverca's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Casa Pia's attack (0.66x) against Alverca's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 28/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alverca Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.38
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.11
0.93
Casa Pia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Alverca and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Alverca and 0.93 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Alverca have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 8W 8D 12L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Casa Pia's form line: 5W 10D 13L from 28 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Alverca against 0.89 for Casa Pia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alverca have posted 1.36 PPG from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
On the road, Casa Pia have gone 3W 3D 8L from 14 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alverca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alverca are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 1.00 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Current Season
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alverca and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 8W 8D 12L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 5W 10D 13L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or Casa Pia away?
Alverca's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.36 PPG; Casa Pia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Alverca
0
Draws
0
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Casa Pia?
From 2 meetings on record, Alverca have won 2, Casa Pia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Alverca and Casa Pia?
Alverca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alverca 43%, Casa Pia 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Alverca) and 57% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alverca have failed to score in 29% of games; Casa Pia in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alverca play Casa Pia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Alverca's recent matches and 29% of Casa Pia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alverca vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Alverca's recent games and 57% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Alverca have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alverca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alverca beat Casa Pia 3-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.18 xG and Casa Pia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alverca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Casa Pia attack 0.66 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 42% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 29%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 54%, Casa Pia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Casa Pia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alverca 1.14 PPG, Casa Pia 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.