Estrela 0-1 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estrela face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Gomes plays host to Estrela versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Estrela (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Estrela's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio José Gomes this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Sporting CP have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sporting CP are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Sporting CP hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 0–4 with Sporting CP winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sporting CP have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Sporting CP half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 38% versus Sporting CP 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 43% | Sporting CP 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.14 xG and Sporting CP 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.993 / defence 1.202 | Sporting CP attack 1.565 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.166. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.565 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Estrela games / 61 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 19% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 61%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Sporting CP 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.14 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Estrela 50% | Sporting CP 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 19% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Estrela 1.14 / Sporting CP 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.993 / def 1.202 | Sporting CP attack 1.565 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Sporting CP xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Sporting CP kick off?
Estrela vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Estrela 0 - 1 Sporting CP.
Where is Estrela vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Sporting CP part of?
Estrela vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 19% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Estrela and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Sporting CP?
Record (5 meetings): Estrela 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 5W.
What form are Estrela and Sporting CP in?
Estrela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Estrela's attack rating (0.99) and Sporting CP's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.56x) against Estrela's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
19%
5.32
20%
4.99
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Estrela xG
Total xG
3.34
2.19
Sporting CP xG
5.32
19%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
11%
8.97
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
2%
47.74
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Estrela and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Estrela and 2.19 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Estrela have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 13W 17D 31L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Sporting CP's form line: 46W 12D 3L from 61 games, 2.46 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 1.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estrela.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Estrela have posted 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 21W 9D 1L from 31 away games — 2.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estrela are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.62 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Current Season
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 13W 17D 31L in their last 61 games (0.92 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 46W 12D 3L in their last 61 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.16 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Estrela or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estrela have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 1 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estrela have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Estrela
1
Draws
6
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Sporting CP?
From 7 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Sporting CP have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Estrela 2-2 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 42%, Sporting CP 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Estrela and 71% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 42%; Estrela have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Estrela's recent matches and 58% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Estrela's matches and 71% of Sporting CP's.
Do Estrela and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Estrela 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Estrela 0-1 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.14 xG and Sporting CP 2.19 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estrela fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sporting CP landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Sporting CP attack 1.56 / defence 0.76, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 19% | Draw 20% | Sporting CP 61%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 43%, Sporting CP 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sporting CP's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Estrela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.