Famalicao 1-3 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Famalicao at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Vitória SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Famalicao and Vitória SC meet at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
Vitória SC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Vitória SC have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Vitória SC are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Famalicao 1W, Vitória SC 3W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Famalicao winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vitória SC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 46% versus Vitória SC 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 49% | Vitória SC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.24 xG and Vitória SC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.809 / defence 0.751 | Vitória SC attack 0.751 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.279. Famalicao's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Famalicao games / 41 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 49% | Draw 30% | Vitória SC 22%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 2.04 | Draw 3.33 | Vitória SC 4.55. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitória SC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Famalicao 40% | Vitória SC 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 49% | Draw 30% | Vitória SC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Famalicao 1.24 / Vitória SC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.809 / def 0.751 | Vitória SC attack 0.751 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Vitória SC xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Vitória SC kick off?
Famalicao vs Vitória SC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Famalicao 1 - 3 Vitória SC.
Where is Famalicao vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs Vitória SC part of?
Famalicao vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 49% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Famalicao and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vitória SC?
Record (4 meetings): Famalicao 1W | Draws 0 | Vitória SC 3W.
What form are Famalicao and Vitória SC in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Vitória SC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Famalicao's attack rating (0.81) and Vitória SC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.75x) against Famalicao's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
49%
2.05
30%
3.37
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Famalicao xG
Total xG
1.97
0.72
Vitória SC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
6%
16.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.72 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 8D 17L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vitória SC sit at 1.61 PPG from 41 outings (20W 6D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Vitória SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Famalicao against 1.61 for Vitória SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Famalicao's home form reads 11W 2D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Vitória SC have taken 1.20 points per game from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vitória SC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.05 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Early Season
Vitória SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 16W 8D 17L in their last 41 games (1.37 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 20W 6D 15L in their last 41 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Vitória SC away?
Famalicao's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.75 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Famalicao have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
1
Draws
6
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Vitória SC?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Vitória SC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Vitória SC 1-2 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Vitória SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 35%, Vitória SC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Famalicao) and 60% (Vitória SC).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Vitória SC in 35%; Famalicao have failed to score in 30% of games; Vitória SC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Famalicao's recent matches and 40% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Famalicao's recent games and 60% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Famalicao and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitória SC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Famalicao.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Famalicao 1-3 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.24 xG and Vitória SC 0.72 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vitória SC outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.81 / defence 0.75 against Vitória SC attack 0.75 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 49% | Draw 30% | Vitória SC 22%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Vitória SC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 49%, Vitória SC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitória SC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.37 PPG, Vitória SC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitória SC win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitória SC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.