Estoril 0-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Estoril face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Estoril welcome Benfica to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 7 October 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estoril stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Estoril have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Benfica have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for Estoril. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Apr 2023, ended Estoril 0–1 Benfica — a Benfica win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Benfica trading profile (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 44% versus Benfica 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 44% | Benfica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.43 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.004 / defence 1.045 | Benfica attack 1.371 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.288. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.371, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Data: built from Estoril's last 41 games and Benfica's last 41.
Result probabilities: Estoril 30% | Draw 23% | Benfica 47%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.35 | Draw 4.36 | Benfica 2.12. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.43 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estoril 30% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 30% | Draw 23% | Benfica 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Estoril 1.43 / Benfica 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.004 / def 1.045 | Benfica attack 1.371 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Benfica (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Benfica xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 0 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 30% chance of winning, Benfica a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (1.00) and Benfica's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 41 games and Benfica's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
30%
3.35
23%
4.36
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.27
1.84
Benfica xG
3.35
30%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
16%
6.33
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
5%
21.23
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Estoril and 1.84 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 11W 6D 24L from 41 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 34W 3D 4L across 41 games — 2.56 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 8W 3D 9L from their last 20 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Benfica's away record stands at 15W 2D 3L across their last 20 away games, a 2.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.41 scored and 0.66 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
Estoril (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Estoril vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 11W 6D 24L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Benfica have gone 34W 3D 4L in their last 41 (2.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.35 PPG; Benfica away: 2.35 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Benfica in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Benfica have taken the most recent 10 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won Estoril 1-5 Benfica.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 August 2026: Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 40%, Benfica 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Estoril) and 60% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 55%; Estoril have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Benfica matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Estoril's recent matches and 35% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Estoril's recent games and 60% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estoril and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Estoril's recent matches and 70% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estoril 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 0-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.43 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Estoril fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Benfica landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Benfica attack 1.37 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 30% | Draw 23% | Benfica 47%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 44%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.56 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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