Chaves 4-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 43%, yet in-form GIL Vicente provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chaves vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 8 as Chaves welcome GIL Vicente to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Chaves have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chaves's home record at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chaves are significantly better at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. GIL Vicente's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Chaves's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chaves, 0 for GIL Vicente and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chaves trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
GIL Vicente trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chaves 51% versus GIL Vicente 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chaves 42% | GIL Vicente 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.979 / defence 1.277 | GIL Vicente attack 0.796 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.298. Data: 41 Chaves games / 41 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chaves 43% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 32%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chaves as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIL Vicente (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chaves 60% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 43% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Chaves 1.55 / GIL Vicente 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.979 / def 1.277 | GIL Vicente attack 0.796 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Chaves (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.32
GIL Vicente xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Chaves vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Chaves 4 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Chaves vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs GIL Vicente part of?
Chaves vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 43% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Chaves and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and GIL Vicente?
Record (2 meetings): Chaves 1W | Draws 1 | GIL Vicente 0W.
What form are Chaves and GIL Vicente in?
Chaves (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chaves's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.04
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.87
1.32
GIL Vicente xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Chaves and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Chaves and 1.32 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Chaves have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 13W 11D 17L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente's form line: 13W 7D 21L from 41 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chaves on 1.22 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chaves have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (6W 6D 8L).
On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 4W 1D 15L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GIL Vicente's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chaves are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.17 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 13W 11D 17L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chaves at home or GIL Vicente away?
Chaves's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chaves at home: 1.20 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chaves's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chaves
2
Draws
0
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and GIL Vicente?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-0 Chaves.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and GIL Vicente?
Chaves have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chaves 65%, GIL Vicente 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Chaves) and 60% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Chaves's games and 60% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chaves vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Chaves's recent games and 60% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chaves cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chaves beat GIL Vicente 4-2 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 8, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.55 xG and GIL Vicente 1.32 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Chaves beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against GIL Vicente attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 43% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 32%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 42%, GIL Vicente 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chaves's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chaves 1.22 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chaves win broke the near-deadlock. Chaves (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.