GIL Vicente 1-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pacos Ferreira make the trip to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos to face GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pacos Ferreira's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with GIL Vicente winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 53% versus Pacos Ferreira 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 50% | Pacos Ferreira 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.25 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.932 / defence 1.202 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.571 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.070 / away 1.177. Pacos Ferreira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 GIL Vicente games / 30 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 45% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 23%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Pacos Ferreira 4.35. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 50% | Pacos Ferreira 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 45% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG GIL Vicente 1.25 / Pacos Ferreira 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.932 / def 1.202 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.571 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.070 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Pacos Ferreira xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 45% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | Pacos Ferreira 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.93x the league average against Pacos Ferreira's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.57x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
45%
2.20
32%
3.15
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.06
0.81
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.81 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIL Vicente come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 11D 7L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 1.20 PPG from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.20 for Pacos Ferreira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GIL Vicente's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Pacos Ferreira have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 0.90 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Current Season
Pacos Ferreira
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 12W 11D 7L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Pacos Ferreira away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.33 PPG; Pacos Ferreira away: 1.07 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 2-1 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 47%, Pacos Ferreira 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (GIL Vicente) and 27% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira in 40%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 27% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 27% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 27% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 31, as GIL Vicente and Pacos Ferreira drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.25 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.81 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.57 / defence 1.25, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 45% | Draw 32% | Pacos Ferreira 23%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Pacos Ferreira 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.57 PPG, Pacos Ferreira 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.