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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Famalicao cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Casa Pia 2-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.88 xG and Casa Pia 0.83 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Casa Pia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Casa Pia attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 62% | Draw 22% | Casa Pia 16%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 48%, Casa Pia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Casa Pia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.41 PPG, Casa Pia 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights