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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Mon 23 Feb 2026

20:15

Venue

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

62%

Famalicao

1.61

22%

Draw

4.57

16%

Casa Pia

6.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.5%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

11.7%

Home win

1 – 1

10.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.88

Famalicao xG

Total xG

2.71

0.83

Casa Pia xG

62%
22%
16%
FamalicaoDrawCasa Pia

1.61

62%

Home win

4.57

22%

Draw

6.20

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

75%

Over 1.5

1.33

25%

Under 1.5

4.00

51%

Over 2.5

1.96

49%

Under 2.5

2.04

29%

Over 3.5

3.45

71%

Under 3.5

1.41

14%

Over 4.5

7.14

86%

Under 4.5

1.16

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.08

52%

BTTS No

1.92

Clean Sheet

43%

Famalicao

2.30

15%

Casa Pia

6.54

Win to Nil

27%

Famalicao

3.72

2%

Casa Pia

40.57

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6 5.5 2.3 0.6 0.1
1 12.5 10.4 4.3 1.2 0.3
2 11.7 9.8 4.1 1.1 0.2
3 7.3 6.1 2.6 0.7 0.1
4 3.4 2.9 1.2 0.3 0.1
5 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.878
λ Away (xG) 0.835
Total xG 2.713
League avg home goals 1.547
League avg away goals 1.217
Famalicao attack strength 1.137
Famalicao defence strength 0.866
Casa Pia attack strength 0.793
Casa Pia defence strength 1.067
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 56