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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Famalicao and Benfica share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 32, as Famalicao and Benfica drew 2-2 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.05 xG and Benfica 1.16 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benfica outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.01 / defence 0.78 against Benfica attack 1.28 / defence 0.70, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 33% | Draw 29% | Benfica 38%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 46%, Benfica 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Benfica's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights