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Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Arouca 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Arouca 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 2.31 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Famalicao 65% | Draw 19% | Arouca 15%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Arouca 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Famalicao's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Arouca's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.43 PPG, Arouca 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights