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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Fri 6 Mar 2026

20:15

Venue

Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Famalicao Win

65%

Famalicao

1.54

19%

Draw

5.13

15%

Arouca

6.50

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.3%

Home win

1 – 1

8.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.31

Famalicao xG

Total xG

3.35

1.05

Arouca xG

65%
19%
15%
FamalicaoDrawArouca

1.54

65%

Home win

5.13

19%

Draw

6.50

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

65%

Over 2.5

1.54

35%

Under 2.5

2.86

43%

Over 3.5

2.33

57%

Under 3.5

1.75

25%

Over 4.5

4.00

75%

Under 4.5

1.33

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

59%

BTTS Yes

1.70

41%

BTTS No

2.43

Clean Sheet

35%

Famalicao

2.85

10%

Arouca

10.02

Win to Nil

23%

Famalicao

4.37

2%

Arouca

65.13

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.5 3.7 1.9 0.7 0.2
1 8.1 8.5 4.4 1.5 0.4 0.1
2 9.3 9.7 5.1 1.8 0.5 0.1
3 7.1 7.5 3.9 1.4 0.4 0.1
4 4.1 4.3 2.3 0.8 0.2
5 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.305
λ Away (xG) 1.047
Total xG 3.352
League avg home goals 1.532
League avg away goals 1.192
Famalicao attack strength 1.150
Famalicao defence strength 0.820
Arouca attack strength 1.071
Arouca defence strength 1.308
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58