Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Estrela at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estrela face Casa Pia.

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Full Analysis

Estádio José Gomes plays host to Estrela versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:15 UK time.

Form

Estrela (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Estrela's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Estrela are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Casa Pia have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Casa Pia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Estrela against 1.10 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Estrela edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Estrela 5–3 Casa Pia — a Estrela win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Estrela half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 39% versus Casa Pia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 42% | Casa Pia 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.21 xG and Casa Pia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.845 / defence 1.291 | Casa Pia attack 0.698 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.173. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Estrela's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. Data: built from Estrela's last 60 games and Casa Pia's last 59.

Result probabilities: Estrela 39% | Draw 29% | Casa Pia 32%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.54 | Draw 3.44 | Casa Pia 3.16. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Estrela as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estrela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estrela 50% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games).

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