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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Guimaraes 4-2 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.41 xG and Guimaraes 0.93 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Guimaraes outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.25 / defence 1.05 against Guimaraes attack 0.69 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 48% | Draw 27% | Guimaraes 25%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 67%, Guimaraes 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Guimaraes's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.33 PPG, Guimaraes 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights