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Shock result as Estoril defy the odds to beat Guimaraes 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat Guimaraes 1-0 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.21 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guimaraes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 0.89 / defence 1.09 against Guimaraes attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 34% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 37%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Estoril win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 62%, Guimaraes 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Guimaraes's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Estoril winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estoril (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights