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Poisson rates Guimaraes at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Guimaraes encounter.

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Full Analysis

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota plays host to Estoril versus Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Estoril have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Guimaraes's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Guimaraes have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Estoril, 1.20 for Guimaraes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 7 meetings, Guimaraes have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Estoril's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Guimaraes winning.

It is worth noting that Guimaraes have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading & In-Play

Estoril — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 54% versus Guimaraes 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 62% | Guimaraes 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.21 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.887 / defence 1.090 | Guimaraes attack 0.990 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.187. Data: 52 Estoril games / 52 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estoril 34% | Draw 29% | Guimaraes 37%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Guimaraes 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Estoril 40% | Guimaraes 50%.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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